Researcher Warns US Against 'Premature Retreat' From Russia Sanctions
Instead of prematurely lifting sanctions against Russia, the U.S. should look to close sanctions loopholes, double down on enforcement and continue coordinating the restrictions with allies, Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, said in an analysis published by the think tank this week.
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A “premature retreat” from the sanctions pressure would “weaken US leverage and embolden the axis of authoritarian regimes that are already helping each other circumvent Western policies,” Lichfield said. “The question is not whether sanctions worked instantly, but whether the world can afford the long-term consequences of abandoning them too soon.”
He said sanctions are having an “unmistakable effect” on Russia despite the “inflated expectations” many in the West had for the measures after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. “Lifting sanctions now would provide relief to a system that is showing clear signs of stress,” Lichfield said, adding that it would also signal to third countries that are on the fence about selling to Russia that they “can get away with what they’ve stopped short of doing so far.”
He noted that the sanctions have stopped China from lending money to the “Russian state” and made Chinese banks hesitant to deal with the Russian market because they fear U.S. secondary sanctions. The Biden administration published a sanctions framework that allows the U.S. to designate foreign banks and other financial institutions that are helping to facilitate transactions of dual-use exports to Russia (see 2401120051 and 2312220023).
“While Moscow has found ways to mitigate the impact of these measures, growing deficits, unsustainable subsidies, and the rising cost of debt servicing show that economic pressure is still working,” Lichfield said. “Removing restrictions without significant concessions risks emboldening not only Russia but also other states contemplating economic and military aggression.”